TOP 5 fantastic events 2016 in global politics.

Decided to write a post in the format of the alternate history future. What events can happen in 2016? A fantastic event, but nevertheless is able to be realized. This is sort of my personal wishes nastupaushim year global policy. So here goes:
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Venezuelan Chronicles: waiting for the hour “Che”.

Continue heading Venezuelan Chronicles. Up to an hour “x” Venezuela remains one week. January 5 begins to fulfill its duties, the national Assembly in its new composition, where the opposition holds the vast majority, Venezuela will enter a new era of confrontation. What’s gonna happen? What does the opposition? What measures are taken by Maduro to cushion the crisis, that the hour “x” the hour “che”? About this review of recent key events:
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Happy birthday, Maduro!

“Happy birthday, President!” Today, November 23, the birthday of the Venezuelan President. Celebrating it away from home and in a working visit to Tehran at the summit of member countries of the gas exporting. However, presidents do not get used.
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Venezuela: the revolution must be able to defend themselves.

On the eve of elections in Venezuela deployed Plan “Republic”, designed to provide a peaceful flow is so important for the country Chavez elections. You know who owns the phrase “Every revolution is only worth something if it can defend itself…”? It Was Lenin. And Venezuela is mindful of this lesson. Let’s see how:
1. To ensure the security of the elections of the Bolivarian national voorujennyh forces (FANB) 163 mobilized thousands of military. The opposition has already said the election under the bayonets)) As it is known on the Crimean referendum…

2. But this army of people, look at their faces, it’s simple guys from the provinces, not mercenaries. The ranks are under the plate where is written the names of the States of Venezuela.

3. General view of show of force aimed at saditty people from clearly impending provocations.

4. Is the Minister of defense of Venezuela.

5. In the meantime, Maduro completes the election campaign. Nothing formal, Krsna sweatshirt, closeness to the people. And this is not hypocrisy and bigotry, Maduro as he is.

6. Two minutes ago, Maduro shook hands of people, ordinary people. Now welcomes his people.

7. But at the same time employees of the Venezuelan Corporation PDVSA hold a rally to support the government in the upcoming elections. They, of course, were kicked out under threat of dismissal. Anything else is just imagination is not enough to submit. But I dare to disappoint, came out voluntarily in an attempt to protect social gains of the Bolivarian revolution.

Waiting for the elections.

Translated by Yandex Translate

Venezuela. The turnout of voters.

While in Venezuela there is a counting of votes, look at the first available indicator of voter turnout released by the National electoral Council (CNE), which, indeed, shows that Venezuelans are extremely responsible attitude to these elections:
According to data from the CNE, the turnout of the election was 74,25%. This is a very high figure. For all modern history of elections (since 1998) is the third indicator. Record were the presidential elections of October 2012 and April 2013. At first defeated Chavez (alas, the last time), the second with a minimum gap Maduro. In the first case, the turnout was as much as 80 percent, the second – 79. So, people came to vote.

Apathy and inertia is not, the Venezuelans realize how important the issue is solved by them today. Who exactly has come – the supporters of the opposition or the government (but Venezuelan society is divided approximately in half) – is difficult to say. Clearly, in the mass order come those and those. The opposition – to take revenge, cavity – to preserve the gains of the Bolivarian revolution.
But in General, high voter turnout ceteris paribus more favorable power. First, it minimizes the possibility to accuse of falsification, which clearly will go to the opposition in case of loss. Secondly, if cavity realized and came to the polls, that is, “in full strength” (Maduro repeatedly said that sort need 10 million votes to secure a win), the chances of winning are greatly increased.
Waiting for the outcome of the vote.

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Venezuela: the reasons for the defeat and the prospect of fighting (analytical study)

Thus, the power lost in the parliamentary elections. Try to figure out why this happened and what are the future prospects for the Bolivarian revolution. I already wrote about the fact that it’s not so much the opposition’s victory, much defeat and the weakness of the government. What are the pitfalls is fraught with a new alignment of forces? We have more say about right-wing victory in France, and Venezuela for some reason are silent. Let’s try to get through this information and smokescreen of silence:
The victory of democracy.

First I would like to mention the democratic and open nature of the upcoming election. Many times, the Venezuelan government criticized the fact that the election results “painted”, – it is impossible, they say, as many times in a row to win. But twenty electoral campaigns in 17 years, the government lost only twice: in 2009 in a referendum on amendments to the Constitution and the current election. I wrote a lot in previous posts about the automated voting system, which many in the world consider the standard of conduct of elections. In this system, the duplicated ballot – a voter votes as paper (newsletters) and electronic means. This allows you to check the results accurate to one ballot. But no, many still had doubts. Now they have vanished. Power lost, with a devastating result. Indeed, to prove that you are alive, you have to die and get a death certificate! Now you, doubter, was convinced that no fraud was not? There never has been. Nothing to do with the present vote, nor in the previous one. Neither one of twenty.
And this, for all the bitterness of defeat is really a victory of democracy. Jokes aside: let’s imagine that the voting results would have aroused the slightest doubt. That would at least portray distorting the will of the voters. What would happen then? It is clear that: “guarimba” – riots – worse than two years ago, when the presidential election with a minimum margin win Maduro. Explosions power lines – they had already started before the election. And even armed rebellion in the border States with the subsequent intervention.
But the government lost. Try to understand what it means and why it happened.
The new arrangement in Parliament.
In fact, the Bolivarian Republic lost one branch. I will notice that, contrary to the bourgeois standard of the three branches (or three “authorities”), in Venezuela there are five of them – Executive, legislative, judicial, electoral and the most interesting – the people’s (system of municipalities). Now, the legislative power belongs to the opposition. In the previous Parliament – the national Assembly – the United socialist party of Venezuela (PSUV) had 98 votes. In the next Parliament more than reversed: the “Table of democratic unity” will belong to 107 seats. This qualified majority of 2/3 of the mandates.
The opposition will be able to initiate and pass laws, including the main (organic) to appoint and remove officials, including Ministers, currently the opposition is attributed to itself by 112 votes, but it’s pitchfork on the air. If she gets that amount, to convene a Constitutional Assembly to change the Basic law. So its potential is very broad. “Calms” only one – the opposition was not and no clear program. Having the broadest powers, she refused to behave like a bull in a China shop and naponimaet such laws, which remind her of voters (about. below).
Why lost.
From the outset, Maduro spoke of the radicalization of the Bolivarian revolution. If Chavez was a master of compromise and was able to negotiate with the opposition, Maduro since the election chose the path of radicalism. But we can say that by and large this is left radicalism more than in words. Against the opposition continued soft and a compromise policy. Yeah, was imprisoned opposition leader Leopoldo lópez, but again why? Because the authorities were afraid that he would be killed “” and this will cause political crisis in the country. By and large even the arrest was a compromise step! Now Lopez raised by the opposition on the shield and slowly coasting.
Had Maduro radicalization and against the government itself. It has been infiltrated by corrupt officials and Nouveau riche. No loud “rapping” when Maduro was not, was not carried out a purge of the Socialist party. Again for fear that it will destabilize and split the party. I have not once come across this type of argument: I am a revolutionary and chavist, but I don’t vote for corrupt officials.
Thus, part of chavista votes went to the opposition or they did not come to vote at all. (Of course, this behavior cannot be admitted as civil adults. For example, in the power of “entrenched” corruption. Although how do you know if your experience is one thing, but if from the bourgeois media – why do you believe them? But let’s say. So bring them to clean water, fail – try again and again, and vote in the elections at least for the lesser evil, but do not give power to the enemy class. Surely under his rule, corruption will be less? Corrupt you pursue – and with other authorities to prosecute will be less? You lack legal capacity – and the right ones will present them to you on a silver platter?)
Social policy of the government was largely down to populist practice of allowances and subsidies. Housing, food, household goods, transportation – all were subsidized by the government and sold at minimal prices, and acted as the main instrument of domestic policy. Yes, social shifts are large, but they turned against the government. Recently in a conversation with a friend I heard an interesting idea, which I will share. As a result, social policy has expanded the middle class. Many have been lifted out of poverty and moved into the group of the middle class. But they have adopted and the public consciousness, including political. A kind of Venezuelan (and Argentinian, and Brazilian) Ivana, not remembering kinship. And this is no accident. Not earned, not conquered you and your comrades in the class struggle, and received from the state in “the gift” corrupts, teaches to wait and demand more handouts. Fall of oil prices – such a layman will immediately start to whine. So the financial situation affects the mind. All in the spirit of Marxist theory.
But this group of reasons, which can be called socio-psychological, not the only one. There is another in which many voters will not admit even to themselves, and many are not aware, but implicitly it defines their “electoral behavior” (and not only electoral) just as much if not more than the first. These reasons can be summarized in one word – fatigue. People are tired of the protracted confrontation that results, primarily for international reasons for the decisive denouement, allowing you to truly solve any problem. Subconsciously builds up a sense of hopelessness. Suppose, again, we’ll choose chavistas – the opposition never recognized the election results, no matter how perfectly honest they are, and the entire “civilized world” will be on her side – and those and others are not left in doubt. So, again, “guarimba”, again killed and wounded, again the tightening of sanctions, again, the threat of war on the borders of the (now two with Colombia and Guyana), again explosions of power transmission lines and not only them, again the sabotage of supply and the entire economy (just try to decide on nationalization – “the civilized world” will go with you as with Libya and Syria).
And all this – with the loss of allies (the right’s already in power in Argentina, on the approaches to it in Brazil), the fall in oil prices. How long? To bloody coup, as in Chile (and Venezuela are almost totally unarmed – there will be shed a sea of blood)? Or to a middle East script, which every day remind the terrorist attacks around the world? Isn’t it better to vote for right – to take power by peaceful constitutional means, and not on the Smoking ruins…
This has already happened more than once. In Nicaragua in 1990. In the Soviet Union and then Russia in the early 90’s, in Ukraine in 2004-m and 2014-m. Only over the past month – in the working-class suburbs of Buenos Aires and bogotá, Guatemala in poor and wealthy France, Turkey and Myanmar.
Can we call this a mood of narrow-minded, blame the electorate for cowardice, to warn: “will regret it” – and that is true. You can even accuse people, received a lot from the revolution, of ingratitude and desertion. But Lenin was not in vain has warned: “Hope in devotion, and such a superb human feelings in politics thing is not serious. Whatever feelings there are a small number of people, and in politics decide the outcome of giant masses, and they are, if a small number of people not suited to them, sometimes cost with this small number of not too polite”.
The masses – even the current, fairly infantilization “society of consumption”, – the “practical life”, as he wrote the same Lenin. And what works for them today and tomorrow, the lesser evil (not in General, but in these particular circumstances) – if they don’t understand, feel better “a small number of people”. Especially when it’s a small number, instead of a sober understanding of the real situation, intoxicating themselves and others of the revolutionary phrase. Heroes such a phrase in Venezuela, and not only there, more than enough. A few of those myself and in the power (navyazli in the teeth of the discourse on radicalization and the offensive, when long overdue to talk about the compromises and the retreat). But even more so in the left opposition (there are such). The latter conceded defeat long before it became a fact, and actually led the campaign for and against Maduro and the PSUV. Now completely rises the howl: of all the resignation, give the coalition government (but who from the opposition will now on this subject to talk with a qualified-majority!)… Like our homegrown opponents of the Brest peace were ready to go “for the temporary loss of Soviet power”. A truly “strange and monstrous” – Lenin better not say anything.
What’s next?
First of all, the current composition of the Parliament has a month of work. He can pass a law expanding the powers of the President, what cavity is likely to go. But his opposition after January 5, will have the opportunity to cancel. But in any case, the President has extra time he has to use.
There is another chance to focus on people’s power. Yes, in Venezuela are being created communes (about 14 thousand), but their powers are limited. It seems that the authorities will attempt to expand legislative power at the local level that can compensate for the loss in the Central legislature.
I hope that in the coming months, the opposition will manifest itself in all its glory. Fortunately she doesn’t have a clear and thought-out political program. Its main aim was to overthrow the non-existent “dictatorship”. Now if it will open fully, then Venezuelans will know for whom they voted.
On the wave of enthusiasm the opposition can go to a referendum to recall the President, which she could initiate from April 2016. It would seem that the balance of power for bad. In these elections for candidates, the authorities voted only 43 percent of voters. But it’s one thing parliamentary elections and another referendum on the resignation of Maduro. Always Venezuelans mobilized on such an important election, the presidential election example. If the opposition has time to discredit itself, in the planned referendum, we can expect the victory of chavismo. Of course, then the political process will not return to normal, at least until the next parliamentary elections, but at least will set the political balance in Latin America happened more than once.
There are, of course, and considerable risk. The opposition can keep the support of the majority, pleading from any argument one: we have no power, you’ll get it then and see what we can do. And most importantly, it can (and probably will) continue to blackmail the nation constitutional conflict “branches of power”, the threat of civil war and intervention.
In any case, Venezuela is entering a very dangerous and interesting period of its history. Let’s wait for news and to follow them.

The text is written in co-authorship with A. Legados.

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Venezuela recovered from the shock of defeat and it looks like structurally. How?

Venezuela is gradually and slowly recovered from the shock, postponed December 6, 2015. I would like to write “life is back on track”, but have to use another idiom, invented by Heraclitus: “you cannot step twice into the same river”. The river is eternally renewed, eternally becomes the new, and Venezuela. The opposition had hoped that cavity fall into depression and sadness. With fear and trembling in Las Vegas Caracas’t socialise. Mobilization took place. Let’s see what happens:
So there are some very interesting things. Defeat in the elections, it would seem devastating and deadly, has triggered the process, which was “pregnant” Venezuela. The upgrade processes. I propose to look into them. As I predicted, the resuscitation of the fifth branch of government – the people’s. Before that it was a purely formal mechanism. There is a remarkable revival. Not power focuses on the commune (it goes), but the communes themselves awaken and become a pillar of power. Now, more and more Venezuelan in the Internet discuss the new role of the communes and popular power, communes represent and embody.

In particular, in Caracas near National Assembly for two or three days of constantly working, so called, national Assembly, or outdoor Assembly. People convenes and discusses the problems and prospects of the Bolivarian process. A kind of analogue to the movement “Occupy”, but with different content. At these assemblies come the deputies, their representatives accept Maduro. The blogs say that this kind of Assembly going not only in the capital but also the regions. Talking about the formation of a new legislature, the National Assembly of the communes. Will it be a reality look.
In Caracas is the third extraordinary Congress of the United socialist party of Venezuela (PSUV). And Maduro has proposed to hold a purge party. No more, no less. All high positions of national and regional level of the party proposed to update and allow the younger generation to take the reins. And malagigi in the Venezuela fighting. It’s not the bureaucrats, sat up for many years. Grass-roots organs of the PSUV, yakam – committees “Against the Bolivar-Chavez” – invited to nominate new representatives. It’s really starting process of a total update of the PSUV. And that’s good.
Actively discussed a new mechanism: every law discussed in Parliament, should undergo public discussion and consultation. See chtanet this a reality. But the sign of good. In addition to consult with people, it can slow down the adoption of anti-people laws favorable to the opposition.
The opposition, meanwhile, outlined their priorities and the main objectives the adoption of the Amnesty Law. They offer 80 to release the so-called “political prisoners”. But the main goal, of course, the release of Leopoldo Lopez, accused to 13 years for organizing radical protests, which has killed more than 40 people.
Maduro declared the law unconstitutional and violate human rights. Said that I would never approve of it.
Such reports from the front versalskogo plan to publish regularly, because we VAABSCHE about it nobody writes.

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Venezuelan news: is there life after loss?

Continue the series of posts in the mode of Express-analysis of the current situation in Venezuela. It is a kind of martial summaries, although fighting in the homeland of Chavez is still far. I would not want to escalate the atmosphere and falling into excessive alarmism, but the logic of events is such that the aggravation of vnutripsihicheskoyOh the struggle it is possible and it looks like Maduro prepares to it. See how it is.

In these posts I will select the key news in Venezuela, to present and analyze them. Let’s start with the steps of the regime to strengthen its positions. First post from the series of Chronicles published here.

It seems that Maduro is making the emphasis on the army in the context of the forthcoming confrontation with the opposition in control of Parliament from the 5th of January 2016. Some would say that that’s, like, Maduro goes in the direction of strengthening the dictatorship, now will start repression, and rampant military. We say differently. Reliance on the military in General is traditional for the Venezuelan state. No wonder Chavez was released from the army. The army has always played in the life of Venezuelan society a huge role. And this role was not limited to suppression of the workers in the interests of the ruling class, as in some other countries, for example in Chile. Armed forces of Venezuela, still has not lost the traditions of the war for independence, was more of “skolkov” with society, an exponent of its social and political of the resultant. In the period of the Bolivarian revolution, this role has only grown stronger. Chavez called this situation “civil-militarytion” or “by consensus”.
Civil-military Alliance.

During the reign of Chavez (it is preserved under Maduro until recently) many key civilian posts occupied the most reliable of the military. The army also played a key role in ensuring the so-called social missions (foundations of the Venezuelan social policies). The military not only provided security but also guided by missions and other socio-economy– demand projects. So now, after the defeat in the elections, Maduro recalls civil war posts that were previously assigned to them.

It is both alarming and optimistic sign. Alarming, because, apparently, the mainstay of the survival of the Bolivarian revolution (and we are talking about survival) are the armed forces. In the army remain controversy and disagreement. There is a group of disloyal military. For example, it is known that in the ongoing elections, when the order was given to the military to extend voting for an hour, some units did not obey this order. It’s only small, but bright sign of the situation in the army. A review of the military with civilian posts, perhaps intended to strengthen the spirit of bolivarism in the army ( and this is the optimistic aspect of this step). So this is a worrying sign because it is unknown, first of all, who will take over the vacant post and, secondly, how this trend will affect the army in General to Executive power.
Burgundy and olive color army of Venezuela.

Soon Maduro intends to reform the army, in particular to adopt a new law on social security of the military. The opposition, of course, will see this as bribing the army. But it seems that Maduro is doing the right thing by following the well-known principle, which in our days, and in relation to Latin America for a long time, so specified: if you do not feed your army itself, it will do someone else. Plans to significantly expand the social package for military, increase benefits and salaries.
Maduro under the flag of the Bolivarian army.

In 2016 it is planned to create inside of the Bolivarian armed forces (FANB) a new unit of special Forces. What purpose is today unknown. While common words are spoken about the defence of the Motherland. But we cannot exclude that this isa preventive step in terms of the increasing conflict within Venezuelan society, which may come to the surface in 2016.
A look into the past is impossible:

How the opposition? Enough caution. While thrown into mediaprojecton separate initiatives to abolish or revise those or other laws. Throwing in and watching the reaction of the public. For example, the most powerful rejection caused plans to reform the Organic labour act, which protects the interests of workers. Still unknown details of the reform, but any attempt at this law people viewed as a threat to their public safety.

Recently, one of the leaders of the opposition, Torrealba encroached even in the “Holy of holies” of bolivarism – social mission. But it is said correctly, so to speak. He said that the opposition is going to “promulgate a new law on missions, which will certainly serve the good of citizens, we just want to deprive them of political content and political control over them by the government and the ruling party”. That is, the main brainchild of the present government and the authorities (the missions that really make life easier for the many thousands of Venezuelans), the opposition wants to take away and offer the people already in its name: say, here’s an updated depolitisationth variant of the same missions. What will spill out the opposition together with the so-called de-politicization, is still unknown, it is possible that the missions themselves.
Proopposition analysts are already starting to savor the theme “Latin American spring“. Are they waiting for Latin America the same results that turned out from the “Arab spring”? The question is rhetorical, but vital. Brazil is on the verge of impeachment, and if this scenario will take place here, on the background of Argentine and Venezuelan elections, the progressive sector of the region will start to shrink like shagreen leather.

That’s all for now, reports of Venezuelan political life will continue. Continue according to very popular among chavista slogan that appeared after the death of the historical leader: “Chavez lives, the struggle continues”.

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